French elections : will Ségolène become the first Woman President of France?
French Radio just announced the first official estimates for the First round of the French Presidential elections.
Ségolène Royal, candidate of the French Socialist party, will be running up with Nicolas Sarkozy, right wing leader and ex-Minister of Internal Affairs.
But Ségolène has now a strong chance to beat her right wing opponent in two weeks during the final vote. Why ? Because center and extreme left voters will probably turn their ballot in favor of Royal.
For more about the this election, read French Elections for Dummies. Both are qualified for the second round.
According to French radio, at 20 PM, the estimates were has follows :
1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP - Conservative right) : 29.5%

2. Ségolène Royal (Socialist Party - left) : 26.3%

3. François Bayrou (UDF - Centre): 18.8%

4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (National Front, extreme right): 11%

5. Olivier Besancenot, (Revolutionary Communist League) : 4.6%

Participation is 83 %
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April 24th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
I think you are quite optimistic, the total number of left votes is about 35%, which is very low. Even if part of Bayrou votes turn to Royal, it will be really tough for her to reach 50%
Simple but arithmetics…