French elections for Dummies ?
A brief introduction to the most fascinating election in years. Today is first round of elections, and nobody knows who’s going to be on the second round in 2 weeks.
This is a small introduction to the 2007 French Presidential election…
The Good, the bad and the ugly (and the 4th man).
The Good :
She looks good, she is a mum, and she made a career in politics. Her objective : give back the power to the people.
During primaries, she shook up the dusty socialist party, forcing the old “elephants” to leave the way.
Her strength : she acts like a human being, and people appreciate.
The Bad :
Nicolas Sarkozy. Number 2 of the last Government and France chief cop, he ignited riots in suburbs in 2005, calling young people “Racaille” (”scum”), and pretending to clean up the suburbs with a “karcher”.
“I really like my new Karcher”.
His objective : take the power for himself and his crew.
Mr. Sarkozy is often compared to Blair, Bush and Berlusconi. People say he is size-challenged, and his greed for power is probably compensating his small size.
His strength : he scares everybody off.
The Ugly :
Jean-Marie Le Pen, French extreme-right veteran, he managed to beat the left during last presidential elections in 2002, leading to the re-election of right-wing Jacques Chirac with a Banana Republic score : 82 % of votes. Thanks Jean-Marie.
His strength : put all the blame on illegal immigrants, they don’t vote anyway.
The fourth Man :
François Bayrou. His party in located at the centre. He has good ideas, he speaks frankly, hence his rocketed popularity in the last polls.
His strength : his positioning outside of the right-left antagonism, a very popular trend now since the frontier between right and left is not so clear, with the left being economically rather liberal and the right blaming the “social break”.
So what are the scenarios for after today’s round ?
Scenario 1 : Bayrou takes away too many votes from the left but not enough to come in Second position. In this case, Sarkozy meets Le Pen in two weeks and wins, just like Chirac in 2002.
Scenario 2 : Royal beats Le Pen and faces Sarkozy in 2 weeks. Here, in a traditional Right - Left battle, suspense is absolute. Following the debacle of 2002, the left overwhelmingly won last regional elections in 2004…
Scenario 3 : The challenger Bayrou beats Royal and Le Pen. He faces Sarkozy at the second round and in this very unlikely case, he has a very unlikely chance to gather the votes of a majority of the left behind him. But if he gets elected, he needs a majority at the National Assembly, otherwise he would have to appoint as “Premier Ministre” the leader of the winning party, either Royal or… Sarkozy. Big fun.
Scenario 4 : the French voters send Royal and Bayrou face to face at the second round. This is very unlikely. But it would be a good slap in the face of the right.
My prediction : it will be very very close tonight. Get prepared for some surprises.
And France, be aware, the world is watching you !
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April 22nd, 2007 at 9:47 pm
I’m watching! Being that I’m American, my priority is economics and I feel that improving the economy is the surest path to improving people’s lives. So while I don’t think it’s a positive thing to call immigrant youth names, I do think that with jobs their lives would be so much better than they are currently. And I think with the changes Sarkozy says he will make, he’s the best chance to help pull all people into a better situation.
April 22nd, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Becca, you are sweet.
But this guy has been in the Government for 5 years now. Why should things change now ? he had the power, he messed up. Period.
Besides, don’t you think the economy does pretty well without government ?
Growth is based on a reliable environment and trust. Not on fear.
April 23rd, 2007 at 7:34 am
Come on, it was on the TV news here for 30 seconds tonight! :)
Yes, he has, but not the power to change many of the things that seem to need to be changed. The French economy lags behind most of Europe’s and has high unemployment. I would say that growth is based on an environment that favors business, meaning: lower taxes, the ability to work as long as is necessary, and being allowed to fire people when they aren’t right for the job. Especially with the last one, employers don’t take risks, for example in hiring a young person with a foreign name and dark skin, if they feel they will be stuck with him forever even if he doesn’t perform well.
The problem is there is too much government as it stands now. Too many regulations and taxes restrict businesses from growing. But if businesses grow they need employees. When they need employees they hire the young. When young people are working all day and making enough to support themselves they don’t commit crimes or riot. Without crime and riots there is nothing to fear.
April 28th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
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